Market Talk

- As stocks edge higher, the 10-year Treasury yield nicks 4%. “While 4% is a nice round number, the more important level is probably 4.3%,” Bespoke notes. “A break of that level would be more indicative of a meaningful uptick in rates.”

- Apple says it sold 300,000 iPads on Saturday. Some were expecting a larger figure, but for the most, that’s an impressive first-day total.

- Tech bloggers are giddy over Apple’s (AAPL) iPad. “Two-word review: It’s great,” Dan Frommer says. Only negative is some folks still aren’t sure why they actually need the device.

- Amid all the iPad hype this weekend, Amazon (AMZN) wants to remind everyone it also has a popular gadget. On its homepage, Amazon boldly states the Kindle’s still its No. 1 best-selling product.

- CEO pay is still way too high and something needs to be done about it. Unfortunately, the solutions are “as simple as they are unlikely,” Barry Ritholtz writes.

- Four industries hit hardest during the recession — construction, durable goods manufacturing, professional & business services, and retail trade — had jobs gains in March. Certainly a positive sign, David Beckworth notes, but the financial sector is still losing jobs.

- Looking for the next crisis? Keep an eye on the municipal market, Rick Bookstaber writes.

- “If the current recovery was similar to the earlier recessions, the economy would recovery the 8+ million lost payroll jobs over the next two years,” Calculated Risk says. “I think that is very unlikely.”

- Google’s (GOOG) buying spree continues, acquiring Episodic, a new video hosting start-up. Episodic’s co-founders announced the deal late last week, noting its employees will be folded into the GooglePlex in San Bruno, Calif. “This clearly seems to be another milestone in Google’s campaign to beef up YouTube’s capabilities,” Chris Thompson says.

- Bank of Mom and Dad shuts amid white-collar struggle

Don't cry, this isn't 2008 all over again.

An interesting, although not necessarily disconcerting, phenomenon is taking place in the Treasury market. Some short-term Treasury bill rates have turned negative today after inching below zero yesterday, meaning investors are effectively paying the government to hold their money.

The last time this occurred was in late 2008 when people were worried about the impending doom of the financial system. Those fears have prompted some to wonder if another devastating event is on the horizon.

“Could there be something more pressing and/or catalytic? We have not heard peep from any of the big banks in a while,” Tyler Durden writes at Zero Hedge.

But the consensus seems to believe that negative short-term T-bill yields are merely “a technical phenomenon” and not reason to start panicking again, John Jansen writes at Across The Curve.

“There is a massive wall of liquidity, a pile of cash which needs a home,” he says, which is helping drive yields lower. “Typically as the year end approaches clients tend to unwind profitable trades and reduce balance sheets. I think that some of that deleveraging process has created new piles of cash and that money needs a place to park.”

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Just what kind of bull is this?

US stocks are on pace for their best quarterly finish in more than 10 years, yet it’s still nearly impossible to determine whether this ferocious rally is the beginning of a sustainable bull market or just a cyclical run-up amid a much deeper bear market.

The Dow closed down 47 at 9742, cutting into yesterday’s 124-point gain, but the index is still on pace for its best quarterly performance since 4Q98. Despite the rally, treasury yields have dropped to levels last seen in the spring, prompting concern about the underlying reason for the increased demand.

“Investors’ appetite for long-term Treasuries could be a bad sign for the economy, if it’s based on buyers’ desire to lock in safe fixed returns because they believe the economic recovery will be cut short,” says LA Times’ Money & Co blogger Tom Petruno.

The 30-year Treasury bond at 4.03% is an important level to watch. He cites Tony Crescenzi, a bond portfolio manager at Pimco, who says a slide through the 4% level would suggest a “breakdown” of faith concerning the economic recovery.

Nevertheless, stocks have gained nearly 15% in 3Q, with the quarter officially coming to an end tomorrow. But even amid the rising stock market, many bearish indicators are still prevalent.

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