November was pretty good for the S&P 500, which rose 5.7%, and the index is off to a sharp start this morning, up more than 1%. But the index has only 23 trading left to avoid posting its first losing decade ever, and it’ll need a monster month to do it.
“Absent a 12.14% December return this will be first negative total return decade for the S&P 500,” S&P’s senior index analyst Howard Silverblatt says. The S&P has never, he adds, had a 12% gain in the month of December
Still, from March 9 through November, the index is up 62%, its best gain since the 66% rally that ended in November 1938. But it doesn’t look like the index will start the next decade off with that kind of vigor.
Wells Fargo predicts the S&P 500 will end 2010 “fairly flat relative to current levels,” within a range of 980 and 1150.
“On average, stocks are flat 12 months after relief rallies, and we expect 2010 to generally follow suit,” firm writes. Predicts ripple effects when government supports are removed, notes the continued difficulties of the US consumer and also notes equities’ discomfort “anytime the dollar hints at minor strength.”
(Brendan Conway contributed to this post.)
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December 1, 2009
[...] a stunning December the S&P 500 is still on track to its first negative total return decade. (DJ Market Talk also [...]