But wait, we're still jobless...
The number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose more than economists were expecting, showing yet again that the labor market faces a long slog ahead.
Weekly jobless claims rose by 11,000 to 531,000. Claims need to fall within the 400,000 to 500,000 range before anyone can expect growth in nonfarm payrolls, the Economist’s Free Exchange blog says.
Continuing claims also fell, but that’s because long-term unemployed are exhausting their benefits, blog says. More than half of unemployed folks have also lost jobs that aren’t coming back.
“The last three or four percentage points of unemployment, above the typical pre-recession level, are going to take a very long time to eliminate,” blog says.
As Paul highlighted earlier, the labor market is far removed from the depths it fell to earlier this year, when the financial crisis was still a major threat. But even if it isn’t getting worse, that doesn’t mean it’s getting better anytime soon. The level of firing may be slowing considerably, but that doesn’t directly correlate to hiring picking up.
One main reason unemployment remains so high is the percentage of jobs lost that aren’t coming back remains at record high, Atlanta Fed’s David Altig writes at macroblog.
“That might not seem surprising, but it actually is,” he says.
Permanent separations never topped 45% of all unemployed in previous six recessions. But it accounts for 56% of unemployment now, and appears to be climbing. Additionally, job opportunities remain scarce, there’s a disproportionately high percentage of job losses concentrated in small businesses and folks getting cut to part-time is at record high, blog notes.
“Of course, none of this is proof positive that we are in for a ‘jobless recovery,’ but, to me, the odds appear to be increasing,” Altig says.
