Market Talk

US stocks made the most of April, even if they weren’t able to muscle past a big resistance point today in the month’s final session, and have now put together a blistering two-month rally.

DJ slips 18 today to 8168; still, index gained 7.3% this month and 15.6% over the past two months. That’s the best two-month spurt since November 2002. That was the start of the last bull market, incidentally.

S&P 500 loses 1 today to 873, after earlier piercing key resistance; the index is up 18.7% the past two months, which is its best two-month run since February 1975. S&P rose as high as 889 during today’s session, above key resistance at 879, a level it hasn’t seen since early January. But it wasn’t able to hold the mark.

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Chrysler finally bit the bullet and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

We repeatedly heard from the automakers in the past that bankruptcy wasn’t a viable option. Nevertheless, what seemed inevitable months ago has finally come true.

The third-largest US automaker will enter a speedy restructuring that’s expected to last 30 to 60 days. At a news conference this afternoon, President Obama said he believes Chrysler will not only survive, but thrive in the long run.

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One down, one to go?

Chrysler finally given up the ghost and will file for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The President will break the news himself, which should tell you just how big a deal this is. As the Journal reports:

The administration’s auto task force tried to get all 46 of Chrysler’s secured lenders to agree to a debt-reduction deal until talks broke down late Wednesday. President Obama is expected to announce that Chrysler is now going to seek reorganization in bankruptcy court.

It isn’t every day the President announces a bankruptcy filing for a private company. Of course, it isn’t every day the President sacks the CEO of the biggest car company in the country, either. These are clearly not every day events.

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What GDP numbers? Have a drink!

There are so many tails wagging so many dogs, you’d think you’re at the pound.

Gross domestic product contracted sharply in the first quarter, down 6.1%; that was barely narrower than the fourth quarter’s 6.3% slide. Two million people have been thrown out of work so far in 2009, and the unemployment rate has spiked to 8.5%, and the continued ascent of both of those numbers is widely expected.

And yet, the market rallied yesterday, and is continuing the rally today. All the talk, since Citi’s Vikram Pandit first crowed about a profitable two months that sparked this rally, has been about recovery, as if enough people say it, surely it will be. We’ve heard more than once that the only thing this economy needs is to restore consumer confidence.

Green shoots is clearly the Kool-Aid flavor of choice this spring.

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Apparently, one of the symptoms of swine flu up here in the States is it makes you buy stocks for no good reason.

Bulls are eager to press their advantage, with premarket stock futures pointing toward a strong open. Investors have clearly decided to get beyond the negative headlines, sift data for signs of life and trust that recent rays of light will lead us out of the dark cave of economic gloom.

Reports are rife that Chrysler’s finally going to throw in the towel and file for bankruptcy protection. Glad we threw a couple billion their way to help stave off this day. we’re hopeful it’ll all work out in the end, and they’ll be living la dolce vita with Fiat.

S&P futures up 10.40; DJ futures up 90. Treasurys continue to slide, 10-year lower, yield at 3.11%.

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What the heck just happened?

US stocks appeared bent on moving higher in premarket, regardless of what the news might bring.

Burgeoning global flu outbreak, noise from North Korea, trouble in Pakistan, dreadful US GDP — all not a problem.

Should be interesting to read the after-action reports on this session, which featured some of the more counter-intuitive trading we’ve seen lately. Continue reading…

Twitter’s exponential growth has received a ton of press lately. But a new study shows many of those folks experimenting with the site don’t actually come back.

The microblogging service’s website generates 6M unique viewers a month. But Nielsen Online says 60% of Twitter.com’s users leave the site the following month, meaning Twitter retains less than half of its new users.

“Twitter has enjoyed a nice ride over the last few months,” says David Martin, the VP of primary research at Nielsen Online. “But it will not be able to sustain its meteoric rise without establishing a higher level of user loyalty.”

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We have liftoff.

Judging by the way US stocks are performing this afternoon, one might guess 1Q GDP came in at a positive 6.1% instead of negative, if you didn’t know any better.

Before the open, we had a sense it would take a staggeringly awful batch of numbers to alter the bullish bias reflected in stock futures, but who had any idea we’d get a rally like this? Financials, industrials, energy and consumer discretionary lead the advance. Continue reading…

Look what we found at the bottom of the ravine.

US stocks shoot higher as investors keep searching for “green shoots” in the economy while largely ignoring the dismal 1Q GDP report.

The 6.1% GDP decrease in 1Q, coupled with the 6.3% contraction last quarter means the economy suffered through its worst six-month slump since the Eisenhower administration. A little disconcerting? You bet.

But GDP is a lagging indicator and the market seems to have already digested the horrible news through various reports in recent weeks and months, James Picerno writes at The Capital Spectator.

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While investors remain well-braced for bad news, bulls continue to find support in US economic data and corporate earnings that either aren’t as bad as feared, or even show some signs of improvement.

Important to note that data, like markets, don’t move in a straight line, so be careful about taking recent indications of a leveling off as sign of a bottom. Corpulent inventory of homes for sale, mountain of foreclosures and no sign of turnaround in employment trends suggest caution’s still warranted.

First look at 1Q GDP due at 8:30am. Anything close to the expected 4.6% decline should sustain this morning’s positive vibe for US stocks. FOMC statement due around 2:15pm ET. S&P futures up 7; 10-yr lower, yield at 3.01%.